Turnout Is Destiny

Turnout Is Destiny
Karl Rove's new assignment is to get the faithful to the polls.
by Fred Barnes
05/01/2006, Volume 011, Issue 31

NOW THAT HE'S BACK IN the elections business, Karl Rove has a huge task on his hands: assuring strong Republican voter turnout. At the moment, Republicans are in a funk. And their dejected mood may presage a low turnout in the midterm election on November 7. Should a large number of Republican voters sit this one out, Republicans could lose control of one or both houses of Congress. It's when Republicans are either inspired or angry that they show up in large numbers and win elections. So Rove, along with Republican national chairman Ken Mehlman, has the job of shaping issues that will make Republicans angry or inspired, or both.

There's one big problem--two, actually. First, Rove's magic won't affect the biggest issues dogging the Bush presidency and causing Republicans to be disheartened: Iraq and rising gas prices. But the second problem--President Bush's sagging job approval among Republicans--is one that Rove can address by emphasizing policies that appeal to Republicans and by creating strong fears of a Democratic takeover.

Let's be clear about turnout. It matters enormously. The sweeping Republican defeat following Watergate in 1974 was only indirectly related to the scandal. The Democratic landslide was directly attributable to the diminished Republican turnout that resulted from Watergate-induced dejection among Republicans.

More recently, the turnout factor has been the single greatest influence on midterm elections. In 1990, 27.4 million Americans voted for Republican House candidates, and the party lost 8 seats. In 1994, however, the Republican turnout jumped to 36.3 million, and the party captured
52 House seats. It dipped in 1998 to 32 million, prompting a loss of 5 seats. But in 2002 it soared to 37 million, and Republicans won 8 House seats.

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Rove may be able to get the Republican faithful to the polls, but that won't save the Republican's. When Republican turnout at the polls spikes that's the result of non-Republican Conservatives like myself voting Republican. The Republican's IMO have squandered their pull with non-Republican Conservatives. Many of these non-Republican Conservatives will either stay home come November or will vote for other than Republican's. The level of anger that I feel toward Republican's in general over what I feel is/was a betrayal of what they professed to believe can not be expressed in words. As I've say before, "Paybacks are hell when you're on the receiving end."